Bet on Bollinger

Ever since John Bollinger introduced his Bollinger Bands in the early 1980s the bands have been a favourite indicator to all technical trades. This article is about the prediction capabilities of Bollinger bands.

Weekend Reading Recommendation

The markets will go up and down, and usually it’s not my business why they do it, I am just interested in making  my luck with a position on the right side of the trade.

Published
Categorized as General

Backtesting Market Volatility

Backtesting if historical volatility or Kahler’s volatility gives a better prognosis for future volatility. Calculating the average prediction error of these two volatility indicators. Testing for the influence of data points used on the quality of the prediction. Comparing the findings to implied volatility to generate a trade idea.

Google EOD csv stock price data download

Sometimes my data provider has not got the data I am looking for. Searching for downloadable csv data I recently came across google spreadsheets. It provides an easy way to get historical stock price data. Save it as csv and use it with your Tradesignal.

Published
Categorized as General

Kahler’s fair bet volatility

Volatility is a measure of risk. It describes how far a commodity will most probably move within a given period of time. The most common measure for volatility is historical volatility. But I do not like the complicated formula for standard deviation. There has to be a better way to explain and calculate volatility…. Implied… Continue reading Kahler’s fair bet volatility

Using Autocorrelation for phase detection

Autocorrelation is the correlation of the market with a delayed copy of itself. Usually calculated for a one day time-shift, it is a valuable indicator of the trendiness of the market. If today is up and tomorrow is also up this would constitute a positive autocorrelation. If tomorrows market move is always in the opposite… Continue reading Using Autocorrelation for phase detection